Whelp, my guildies think I'm a little crazy (and OCD) but I hope this data will be of use for people.

 

 

I logged the results of every Grade 11 Crew Mission I've run on every alt since 3.0 dropped. There are 1,036 missions in all. If anyone is interested in looking at the raw data, I uploaded the text file here:

 

Here is some data I've gleaned:

196 critical results out of 1036 missions == 18.91% crit rate

79 failed results out of 1036 missions == 7.63% failure rate

 

Note that the first few hundred missions were run while I was leveling the crew skills, and I ran a lot of orange-level difficulty missions. These have a slightly lower chance of critting and (I believe) a slightly higher chance of failing.

 

Looking only at Bountiful / Rich missions (excluding any Moderate / Abundant):

129 critical results out of 698 missions == 18.48% crit rate

 

Looking only at Crew Missions that have a chance of returning purples:

91 critical results out of 442 missions == 20.59% crit rate

 

That last result seems to be an anomaly. Not that I'm complaining, mind you, but it's a bit higher than expected. Probably due to a lucky streak.

 

Lastly, here are some tidbits I found interesting:

 

 

Edited December 12, 2014 by Khevar

Thank you. Now I do not have to track this stuff to show what you have shown: that crit rates are dead on (within the standard margin of error). This is the kind of data that more players need to bring and see so that fewer "OMG the <insert RNG function here> is broken, fix it NAU" threads will be created.

Awesome numbers!

 

I always dream about doing this, I just don't have the patience to record each result properly.

Thank you very much for doing all this work !

 

One comment about this.

196 critical results out of 1036 missions == 18.91% crit rate

79 failed results out of 1036 missions == 7.63% failure rate

 

Perhaps you should calculate the crit rate you got with only succesful missions. There's no chance to crit a mission that failed.

If I understand this right, once the timer on a mission is done, system first rolls the dice to determine whether the mission fails or not. If it doesn't , then another roll for a crit. That's the "promised" crit rate, or, what we should expect. I believe this is how it works. Could be wrong though.

 

So with your numbers,

196 / ( 1036 - 79 ) = 0,2048

 

That's a 20,48%, pretty much exactly what we should be getting

If I understand this right, once the timer on a mission is done, system first rolls the dice to determine whether the mission fails or not. If it doesn't , then another roll for a crit. That's the "promised" crit rate, or, what we should expect. I believe this is how it works. Could be wrong though.

Whoa. I hadn't thought of that.

 

However, 20% crit rate for the missions I ran would be too high, just due to the fact that I ran several hundred orange missions early on.

 

Patrick Malott's Q&A from a while back gave orange difficulty missions a 10% base chance to crit. With full affection, that's a 15% chance to crit, which would bring the overall average down a bit.

Whoa. I hadn't thought of that.

 

However, 20% crit rate for the missions I ran would be too high, just due to the fact that I ran several hundred orange missions early on.

 

Patrick Malott's Q&A from a while back gave orange difficulty missions a 10% base chance to crit. With full affection, that's a 15% chance to crit, which would bring the overall average down a bit.

 

I can't find the blog / yellow post about how mission failures was done. Pretty much stating the values for that were fixed and didn't have any kind of modifier, only determined by the mission's difficulty. A companion at 10k affection has the same chance of failing an orange mission than a companion at 0

I don't honestly remember they saying there were two RNG calls (one for failing/ succes, other for crit/standard), probably that was my interpretation.

 

In any case, like psandak said, the numbers you got are quite good and nothing fishy is going on. Simply bad streaks of bad luck hitting people....

Good stuff, I concur with the thank you for saving other people time by tracking and posting the results!

Thank you very much for doing all this work !

 

One comment about this.

 

 

Perhaps you should calculate the crit rate you got with only succesful missions. There's no chance to crit a mission that failed.

If I understand this right, once the timer on a mission is done, system first rolls the dice to determine whether the mission fails or not. If it doesn't , then another roll for a crit. That's the "promised" crit rate, or, what we should expect. I believe this is how it works. Could be wrong though.

 

So with your numbers,

196 / ( 1036 - 79 ) = 0,2048

 

That's a 20,48%, pretty much exactly what we should be getting

 

Actually they can do the following implementation:

.

.

.

Roll for success or failure with variable A

Roll for crit with variable B

Check random variable A, if A = failure then end, if not then proceed

Check random variable B, if B= crit then provide critical results, if not provide normal results.

.

.

.

 

While logically it doesn't make a lot of sense for a failed mission to be critical but from a math point of view the crit chance would seem to be lower because a portion of those missions that crit have failed. So in the end it all depends on whether they are checking for the value of variable A before or after rolling for B.

 

(Just a note I did read all of your reply, I am just talking about this part: "There's no chance to crit a mission that failed." )

Edited December 13, 2014 by znihilist

Well if RE is any indication, they are not. Throughout my experience crafting in this game I have gotten many a message saying: "you already have that schematic." that tells me that the system does not check for the "no research available" flag so regardless the 20% RE chance is randomized.

 

Translating that to crit chance maybe there are failures that crit, and we see them as either successes with crit (crit chance success overrides failure) or failures that crit (0 * anything = 0)

"... Looking only at Crew Missions that have a chance of returning purples:

91 critical results out of 442 missions == 20.59% crit rate ..."

 

1) Not all crew missions have a chance of returning purples? I thought any crew mission can crit, thus producing a purple.

 

2) How would I find out which crew missions have a chance to return a purple, so that I can concentrate on those?

Any rich or bountiful Underworld Trading, Treasure Hunting, Investigation, Diplomacy, or Slicing Tech Parts mission produce 2-3 purples when they crit. As far as I know any lockbox mission from slicing can produce a mission item. The harvesting missions can all crit, but they just add 2 more of the item on to the yield, so it's not as important for them to crit.

2) How would I find out which crew missions have a chance to return a purple, so that I can concentrate on those?

Rich / Bountiful missions. Anything over 3000cr basically.

Thank you very much.

79 failed results out of 1036 missions == 7.63% failure rate

Can you calculate failure rates by mission difficulty? IIRC only orange missions can fail.

Can you calculate failure rates by mission difficulty? IIRC only orange missions can fail.

 

ALL missions can fail. But the chance is higher with Orange missions. IIRC gray, green, and yellow missions have a flat failure rate of 5% and I want to say that orange missions have a 7.5% failure rate (50% higher).

Can you calculate failure rates by mission difficulty? IIRC only orange missions can fail.

Unfortunately, I didn't log the color of the mission when I tried them.

 

It's a fair bet that most of the early missions (like the first 400 or so) were orange, as I was trying to level the crew skill as fast as possible.

 

But if you go back to the first post, and click on the link for the raw log file I kept, you can look through the detailed entries. You'll see that there were failed missions throughout, even in the end when I only ran yellows.

ALL missions can fail. But the chance is higher with Orange missions. IIRC gray, green, and yellow missions have a flat failure rate of 5% and I want to say that orange missions have a 7.5% failure rate (50% higher).

You sure about that? I don't recall getting any failures from other than orange missions, but I've had the rich slicing lockbox mission (which is still orange at 500) fail fairly often.

You sure about that? I don't recall getting any failures from other than orange missions, but I've had the rich slicing lockbox mission (which is still orange at 500) fail fairly often.

I stand corrected, just got a failure from an abundant (green) slicing lockbox mission. That's the only fail from 59 missions so far though, including 8 repetitions of the rich (orange) slicing lockbox mission. Almost all were run with 500 skill, and most with companions with 10000 affection. 10 results were crits.

You sure about that? I don't recall getting any failures from other than orange missions, but I've had the rich slicing lockbox mission (which is still orange at 500) fail fairly often.

 

All missions can fail except missions obtained via discovery (from slicing). Those will always succeed.

You sure about that? I don't recall getting any failures from other than orange missions, but I've had the rich slicing lockbox mission (which is still orange at 500) fail fairly often.

 

The mission difficulty colors seem wonky.

 

There are some missions that go green / grey while others in the same difficulty range (e.g abundant) are still yellow, and there are a few that even at 500 are orange as with the slicing lockbox mission.

 

I've noticed the same thing when crafting, specifically enhancements where I picked up four from the trainer with the same minimum skill level, and had one go grey well before 500 (and even the RE purple is grey) while the other three are still green at 500.

The mission difficulty colors seem wonky.

 

There are some missions that go green / grey while others in the same difficulty range (e.g abundant) are still yellow, and there are a few that even at 500 are orange as with the slicing lockbox mission.

 

I've noticed the same thing when crafting, specifically enhancements where I picked up four from the trainer with the same minimum skill level, and had one go grey well before 500 (and even the RE purple is grey) while the other three are still green at 500.

 

I have seen this too, and am not thrilled about it either because those orange missions (that would/should normally be yellow) have a 5% less crit chance. But maybe that is the intent. But it seems random - like the Rich Artifact Fragment mission in Arch is also Orange...why?

Ditto for me on the wonky colors. Here's another example:

 

Continuity Break - Moderate, 2,330cr (Green)

The First Protector - Abundant, 2,415cr (Grey)

 

Not that this is a big deal (as it's between green and grey), but it would seem that there is some kind of odd math going on, as if the lower difficulty mission was "upped" a level or something.

Hows your luck with getting Doonium? I have 10 stacks of Trimantium but only got 12 units of Doonium so far. I only get crafting schematics from what I assume are crits. Does the game do a second roll to determine if you get a schematic or artifact materials?

I'm mostly just running lockbox missions on my four slicers, then running the resulting discoveries on whatever character has the best crit chance for each particular mission. I think I have about half a stack of Doonium now, and only three or four of Trimantium.

Hows your luck with getting Doonium? I have 10 stacks of Trimantium but only got 12 units of Doonium so far. I only get crafting schematics from what I assume are crits. Does the game do a second roll to determine if you get a schematic or artifact materials?

 

Schematic generation is weird:

 

Augment schematics from Slicing are only generated through crits

All other schematics generated are separate from crit success except...

if you crit you get a random schematic.

 

So if you only get blue materials and a schematic you did not crit succeed. One way to see this is when a companion returns from a mission there is a message associated with the results. If in that message text see "extraordinary results" that's a crit.